What is Northstar Clean Technologies Inc. (ROOF.V) worth?

Northstar Clean Technologies recovers liquid asphalt, aggregate, fiber and limestone from discarded asphalt shingles. It remains pre-commercial: its first facility, Empower Calgary, is built and commissioned (first liquid asphalt produced, ERA Milestone 3 achieved) but not yet in commercial production, with ramp guided to H2 2026, and FY2025 revenue was only ~C$0.6M against a ~C$14.8M net loss. The defining feature is the balance sheet — ~C$57.5M of total debt and leases against C$12.7M cash, negative book equity, and a going-concern flag. I value ROOF bottom-up as a probability-weighted sum of its three named plants — Calgary (operating), Hamilton (signed HOPA lease LOI) and Baltimore (TAMKO MOU) — each a plant-level DCF on management's unit economics, netted against build capex, corporate overhead and the ~C$45M balance sheet. That yields ~C$0.13/share, or ~C$0.14 including optionality for later sites. The key takeaway: because the success weights sum to ~1.0, the equity capitalizes roughly one plant-equivalent of value against the debt, which consumes most of it — so the shares trade at a modest premium to fair value, with the market paying for a broader multi-plant roadmap the three-plant build does not credit.

Probability-weighted per-facility SOTP (plant-level DCF net of build capex, corporate overhead and net debt); scenario cross-check

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.