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Priced above base case
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What is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) worth?
Currently $139.65 — above the base case ($119.00) · ● live
Platform / optionality
low confidence in the point estimate
— for this profile, read the range & what the price implies, not the single number
● live · as of 2026-08-20 11:24 · Market cap $1.8T
As of 2026-08-05, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $121.00 versus a current price of $139.65 — a 15% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
SpaceX (SPCX) has re-rated from 'priced for excellence' to roughly fair, on the back of a genuinely strong Q2 2026. The company is still three capital-hungry moonshots under common control — Starlink (Connectivity), Falcon/Starship/Dragon (Space), and the xAI/Grok/X complex (AI) — but the second quarter finally gave investors segment financials, and they reframed the story. Consolidated revenue was $7.8bn, up 92% y/y (reversing the Q1 deceleration narrative), Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5bn (+191%), and the net loss narrowed to $541m.
The parts are now visible, and Connectivity is the anchor. Starlink revenue grew 66% to $4.3bn with operating income up 79% to $1.7bn and ~$2.6bn of segment Adjusted EBITDA; subscribers doubled y/y to 12.0m. AI revenue jumped 247% to $2.6bn and — remarkably — turned segment Adjusted EBITDA-positive (+$1.1bn), though it did so against $15.8bn of capex in a single quarter and a newly announced $60bn acquisition of Cursor. Space grew to $962m but posted a wider operating loss as Starship R&D accelerated (Flights 12 and 13 both succeeded).
Fair value ≈ $121/share. A DCF remains meaningless with FCF deeply negative — value lives in the parts and the multiple. My base-case SOTP is ~$120 ($1.58T equity), and the balance sheet is now ~$61bn net cash rather than net debt. At the current level the market implies ~35x 2027E EV/revenue — much less demanding than the ~57x I flagged last quarter — so the disciplined base case is now roughly in the price. A fascinating, increasingly proven set of assets that has grown into its valuation; I'd no longer call it overvalued, but the AI burn keeps a wide margin of safety desirable.
How we value it
Probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts (Connectivity + Space/Starship + AI), now built on disclosed segment financials; cross-checked with implied EV/revenue. DCF inapplicable (FCF deeply negative).
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. The company's Connectivity segment operates a high-speed, low-latency broadband network powered by various Starlink satellites in low-earth orbit, delivering connectivity to various consumer, enterprise, and government customers through its Starlink offering. Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. It offers launch services for the deployment of payloads to intended orbits for commercial and government customers utilizing Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy; and launch and development for the development of spacecraft and the provision of launch and mission services for government agency space programs utilizing Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship, and Dragon. The company's AI segment operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning a frontier LLM Grok; AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers; X, a real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform; and AI computational infrastructure. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Starbase, Texas.
Frequently asked questions
Is SPCX a buy?
As of 2026-08-05, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) looks overvalued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $121.00 versus a current price of $139.65 — a 15% premium to fair value.
What is SPCX's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is $121.00, versus a current market price of $139.65.
Is SPCX overvalued or undervalued?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) currently looks overvalued — trading at a 15% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $121.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.