Verdict
Fairly valued
Home · AAPL
What is Apple Inc. (AAPL) worth?
Currently $316.83 — 2% premium to Dolphy’s fair value · ● live
Steady operator
medium confidence in the point estimate
● live · as of 2026-08-20 12:25 · Market cap $4.8T
As of 2026-07-22, Apple Inc. (AAPL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $310.00 versus a current price of $316.83 — a 2% premium to fair value.
Executive summary
Fair value $310 (up from $305); the stock trades at a modest premium, so still Fairly valued, leaning slightly rich. This is an update, not a re-initiation, and the prior call holds: Apple is the world's highest-quality consumer-tech franchise, but the current price already capitalizes a terminal-value/quality story rather than cash flows.
The Q2 FY26 print (quarter ended March 28, 2026) strengthened the floor under our thesis. Revenue rose 17% to $111.2B, iPhone +22%, Services +16%, and — critically — the two things we flagged as biggest risks last quarter did not bite: Greater China grew 28% (renminbi + iPhone) and total gross margin expanded to 49.3% (Services GM 76.7%) despite management's explicit warning on rising component costs.
We nudge normalized FCF to $120B (from $115B) and fair value to $310. But the stock has risen, so the modest premium we saw before is essentially unchanged. DCF alone yields ~$186; the market's price implies ~22% five-year FCF growth — unachievable at this scale — so the premium is a franchise bet, not cash-flow math.
How we value it
DCF + peer P/E comps, cross-checked with probability-weighted scenarios and a reverse-DCF
Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.
Investment thesis
About Apple Inc.
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allows customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
Frequently asked questions
Is AAPL a buy?
As of 2026-07-22, Apple Inc. (AAPL) looks fairly valued. Dolphy estimates a fair value of $310.00 versus a current price of $316.83 — a 2% premium to fair value.
What is AAPL's fair value?
Dolphy's estimated fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $310.00, versus a current market price of $316.83.
Is AAPL overvalued or undervalued?
Apple Inc. (AAPL) currently looks fairly valued — trading at a 2% premium to Dolphy's estimated fair value of $310.00.
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AI-generated research by Dolphy for educational and informational purposes only — not investment advice. Figures are computed from public sources and may contain errors.