What is Intel Corporation (INTC) worth?

Intel, with a market cap of ~$504B and enterprise value of ~$536B, is priced as if its foundry-plus-AI transformation has largely succeeded. Q2 FY26 (reported July 23) was a genuine positive inflection and we have raised Fair Value from $32 to ~$44: revenue $16.1B (+25.4% YoY, $1.8B above guide), non-GAAP gross margin 41.8% (+12ppt YoY), non-GAAP EPS $0.42 vs ~$0.20 guided, and GAAP operating income swung positive to $1.8B. The standout was DCAI — ~$6.3B revenue at ~39% operating margin with purpose-built AI silicon nearly tripling YoY — which invalidates our prior share-loss haircut on that segment. Foundry remains loss-making but is improving (op margin -36% vs -72% a year ago; 18A ramped; 14A committed to HVM in 2028). Free cash flow is still deeply negative (adjusted -$8.4B, swung by a -$12.2B partner-contribution item), and the GAAP loss per share of -$2.16 reflects a large non-cash escrowed-share mark-to-market.

Our updated probability-weighted SOTP values Intel at ~$39/share and our scenario-weighted expected value at ~$50; we anchor Fair Value at ~$44. That still implies the stock is trading at a significant premium to intrinsic value, with the market capitalizing the bull case (Foundry as a credible Western #2 plus durable AI-driven DCAI growth) as near-certain — an outcome we think is more plausible after Q2 but still a minority probability. INTC remains overvalued at current levels, with a wide outcome distribution and hence low confidence in any single point.

Probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts (CCG + DCAI products, Foundry optionality, Mobileye/stakes, net debt) cross-checked with implied-multiple work

Every figure is computed from SEC filings by the analyst’s calculator tools and fact-checked by a second, independent model.